A total of 86 transactions were completed in the third quarter, down from 112 in Q2. Rolling 12-month transaction volume declined to 408, compared with 446 in the previous quarter and a peak of 485 in Q3 2025. Despite the slowdown, activity remains significantly above pre-Covid levels. Sweden was the most active market with 32 transactions, closely followed by Denmark with 29.
The software segment remained stable, recording 44 transactions, up from 41 in the previous quarter. IT services and consulting activity declined from 47 to 34 transactions, while consulting companies continued to account for 30% of total deal flow. On a rolling 12-month basis, IT services activity remained stable at 143 transactions.
Public market performance remains weak. Listed Nordic technology indices have yet to recover from the declines earlier this year. Over the past twelve months, Nordic SaaS has fallen by 19%, while IT services is down 16%.
A key development during the quarter was growing uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI on the SaaS market. Concerns that AI could make existing software easier to replicate or replace have already affected valuations in global equity markets and are now receiving increasing attention in Nordic M&A processes.
Our discussions with buyers suggest that the distinction is increasingly between companies with strong and weak competitive moats, rather than between vertical and horizontal software. Mission-critical solutions, software deeply embedded in customers’ workflows, and products driven by regulatory requirements continue to attract buyer interest. Companies with low customer lock-in and solutions that are easier to replace, however, face a more selective market.
These developments highlight the importance of demonstrable competitive advantages in a market where AI is changing how long-term value creation is assessed. For both buyers and sellers, understanding the resilience of a software company’s market position and how technological change may affect future earnings is becoming increasingly important.
We would be pleased to discuss your situation – whether it concerns a sale, acquisition or strategic considerations. Together, we can consider the opportunities, timing and next steps.
